U.S. Freight Market Update – September 2026

The U.S. freight market is entering the final quarter of 2026 with a noticeable split between the spot and contract markets. While spot rates have cooled from their summer highs, contract rates continue moving upward as carriers face tighter capacity, higher operating costs, and significant changes in driver eligibility.

According to the latest DAT Freight & Analytics Freight Focus report, the market is being shaped by a combination of regulatory changes, driver availability, fuel prices and seasonal freight patterns.

For brokers, shippers, carriers and fleet operators, understanding these trends will be critical as the market moves into October and the final months of the year.

More Than 62,000 Drivers Affected by English Language Enforcement

One of the biggest developments affecting capacity is the ongoing enforcement of English language proficiency requirements.

The September DAT iQ Signal Report counts more than 62,000 drivers removed from service or stripped of their CDLs under English language proficiency enforcement.

This is part of what DAT describes as a broader “Re-Credentialing Cycle”, in which regulatory and compliance changes are reducing the available driver pool.

Another major factor is the FMCSA’s non-domiciled CDL rule. DAT reports that roughly 194,000 of approximately 200,000 active non-domiciled CDL holders could be unable to meet the new requirements, with the impact expected to develop over several years as licenses expire.

The Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse is another source of capacity pressure. According to the report, there have been approximately 235,000 violations, with about 69% of affected drivers not returning to the industry.

Together, these developments are creating a different type of capacity cycle than the trucking industry has experienced in previous years.

Instead of capacity being driven primarily by carriers parking trucks during weak markets and returning when rates improve, the current cycle is increasingly influenced by driver eligibility and regulatory requirements.

Spot Rates and Contract Rates Are Moving in Different Directions

One of the most important trends heading into October is the widening difference between the spot and contract markets.

During August:

• Dry van contract rates increased by 7 cents per mile
• Dry van spot rates declined by 11 cents per mile, excluding fuel
• Temperature-controlled contract rates increased by 6 cents per mile
• Reefer spot rates declined by 4 cents per mile
• Flatbed contract rates increased by 8 cents per mile
• Flatbed spot rates remained relatively flat

Despite the recent seasonal cooling in spot markets, spot rates remain approximately 25% higher than last year, while contract rates are approximately 15% higher.

This creates an important distinction for shippers.

The softer spot market does not necessarily mean contract transportation costs will immediately follow the same direction.

Contract Rates Continue to Reprice Higher

DAT’s New Rate Differential continues to point toward higher contract pricing.

Current figures reported by DAT include:

• Dry van: 16.2%
• Flatbed: 14.7%
• Temperature-controlled: 11.8%

If these levels remain in place through the fall bid season, new contracts signed during October and November could be priced significantly above the contracts they replace.

For shippers preparing annual or mini-bids, the current market therefore requires a careful look at both spot and contract conditions rather than relying on spot-market movements alone.

Diesel Prices Are Adding More Pressure

Fuel continues to be another major factor influencing carrier economics.

DAT reported diesel reaching approximately $6.529 per gallon during the third week of September, pushing typical fuel surcharges toward approximately $1 per mile.

Contract carriers generally have more protection from fuel volatility because fuel surcharges can adjust with diesel prices.

Spot carriers face a different situation. A spot rate is generally negotiated as one all-in price, meaning higher fuel costs can directly reduce the carrier’s operating margin.

This creates additional pressure on smaller fleets and carriers that depend heavily on spot freight.

If diesel prices remain elevated, some carriers may reconsider their participation in the spot market, potentially reducing available capacity even further.

What to Watch in October 2026

Dry Van Capacity

Dry van truck posts are reportedly running approximately 40% below the level seen a year ago.

Although spot rates have declined from their seasonal highs, brokers and shippers may continue to experience challenges finding reliable coverage as the industry enters Q4.

The combination of reduced truck availability, regulatory changes, and higher operating costs could keep pressure on transportation capacity.

Reefer Market: Follow the Harvest

The reefer market is becoming increasingly dependent on seasonal produce movements.

According to the latest DAT market analysis, Yakima tree fruit is producing some of the strongest rates of the produce season.

Pacific Northwest outbound lanes are therefore an area worth watching as produce volumes influence refrigerated capacity and pricing.

For reefer carriers and brokers, understanding harvest timing and regional produce volumes can be just as important as monitoring national rate averages.

Flatbed Market Remains Closely Tied to Construction

Flatbed contract carriers continue to hold a strong position, supported in part by data center and energy-related construction activity.

DAT reports a 29.5% Contract Rate Index for flatbed.

However, there are also signs that some segments of the open-deck market could soften.

July farm equipment sales declined:

• Tractor sales: -10.9%
• Combine sales: -5.3%

These numbers could point toward softer agricultural equipment demand during the second half of the year.

Intermodal Gains Attention

Fuel costs are also influencing shipper transportation decisions.

DAT reports that the New Rate Differential for intermodal increased to 7.4%, suggesting that some shippers are moving freight away from the highway in an effort to manage transportation and fuel costs.

This could create additional competition between truckload and intermodal providers as companies look for ways to control transportation expenses.

What This Means for Shippers and Brokers

The September market data highlights an important point: there is no single freight market right now.

Different modes and different transportation segments are moving at different speeds.

Spot rates may be cooling while contract rates continue increasing. Fuel costs are putting pressure on certain carriers more than others, while regulatory changes are gradually reducing the available driver pool.

For shippers and brokers, this means that relying exclusively on spot-market pricing may not provide a complete picture of transportation costs heading into Q4.

A strong transportation strategy should consider:

• Current spot-market conditions
• Contract-rate trends
• Driver and carrier availability
• Fuel prices and surcharge structures
• Seasonal produce volumes
• Regional capacity
• Regulatory changes
• Alternative transportation options such as intermodal

Preparing for the Final Quarter of 2026

The U.S. trucking market is entering October with several competing forces.

Seasonality is putting downward pressure on some spot rates, while regulatory changes, fuel costs, and carrier economics are supporting tighter capacity.

At the same time, contract rates continue to move higher, creating a challenging environment for shippers preparing new transportation agreements.

For carriers, maintaining operational efficiency and carefully evaluating which freight provides sustainable margins will remain important.

For brokers, reliable carrier relationships and accurate market information can become increasingly valuable when capacity tightens.

For shippers, understanding the difference between spot and contract markets will be critical when negotiating transportation rates for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.

The Bottom Line

The September 2026 freight market is showing a clear divergence between cooling spot markets and rising contract rates.

At the same time, the trucking industry is dealing with a shrinking pool of eligible drivers, elevated diesel prices, and significant regulatory changes.

As October approaches, the market will be shaped by how these factors interact.

The key question for the industry is no longer simply whether freight rates are rising or falling. It is where capacity is tightening, which modes are being affected, and how quickly transportation costs are changing across different segments of the market.

For companies moving freight across the United States, staying informed and maintaining access to reliable capacity will remain essential throughout Q4 2026.