What carriers and owner-operators need to know as we roll toward the holiday rush
As we move into November 2025, the U.S. trucking market is showing a mix of familiar seasonal patterns and emerging structural shifts. For operators of 53-ft trailers — whether reefers, dry vans, flatbeds or Conestoga/open-deck types — understanding what’s happening in rate, capacity and lane dynamics is key to staying profitable and avoiding surprises.
Rate Snapshot & Mode by Mode
Dry Van: Recent spot market data show average national dry van spot rates at about $2.08 per mile (net fuel) in mid-October, up roughly 3 ¢ from September. According to C.H. Robinson’s November update, the 2025 dry van cost-per-mile forecast has been revised upward from +2% y/y to +4%. So while dry van rates aren’t exploding, they’re trending upward slightly, especially in lanes tied to holiday retail restocking and port import flows.
Reefer: For refrigerated units, the national average was about $2.47 per mile in mid-October, up ~3 ¢ versus September. Load-to-truck ratios for reefers are rising modestly, particularly in the Midwest (rates there average ~$2.80/mile) and in key produce/holiday lanes. C.H. Robinson forecasts reefer cost-per‐mile for 2025 at +1.5% y/y (up from a prior‐year estimate of –1%). So reefers are under some upward pressure.
Flatbed (including Conestoga/open-deck): Flatbed rates are more muted. According to ACT Research for September: flatbed spot rates were up ~41 % y/y but unchanged m/m (~$1.92/mile) and contract flatbed rates remain soft.The broader view from C.H. Robinson: flatbed market aligned with five-year seasonal norms into late Q3, with a mild softening in October and expectation of stability or mild easing into mid-December. So for the flatbed/conestoga segment: fewer spikes, more steady or slightly easing rates, especially as residential construction tails off in colder regions.
Capacity & Market Dynamics
Load-to-truck ratios: Rising for reefers and dry vans in key lanes. For example, the week ended Nov 7 showed dry van loads down slightly versus prior weeks but still showing upward rate pressure; reefer loads up ~1.6% and spot rates up ~5 ¢. Fuel / input costs: Diesel national average ~ $3.62-3.72/gal in October; down relative to a year earlier but still a meaningful cost. Regulatory & structural:
The new Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) rule tightening non-domiciled CDL eligibility (effective Sept 29, 2025) is reducing available driver supply, particularly for long‐haul/cross‐border lanes.
For flatbed, the shift away from busy summer construction freight into fall/winter is reducing urgency in some lanes, while heavy industrial/utility work persists.
What This Means for 53-ft Truckers (Reefer / Dry Van / Flatbed / Conestoga)
Reefer operators:
You’re in a strong position going into November. Holiday produce, perishable goods and cold-chain freight picking up means tighter capacity in some lanes (Midwest→Southeast, West Coast produce exits). Rates are climbing. If you operate or work with a 53-ft reefer, position yourself early for those long runs, especially from grower regions or ports (e.g., Nogales, McAllen, Washington/Idaho for apples/potatoes). Bookings should be made early.
Dry van operators:
Rates aren’t spiking dramatically, but they are firming. If you’re running 53-ft dry vans, focus on port-to-DC/retail lanes (East/Gulf Coasts) and be alert to holiday restocking. That said, avoid deadhead trips or weak backhauls — the rate pressure may be modest, so profitability hinges on load efficiency. Flexibility wins.
Flatbed / Conestoga operators:
For open‐deck/flatbed, especially 53-ft-equivalent gear, the story is more about stability than boom. With residential construction winding down in many northern markets, and a shift toward more industrial/utility/energy freight, you’ll see mixed demand. Conestoga trailers may give an advantage (better weather protection, faster loading/unloading), so if you have or can access them you may win in weather-sensitive lanes. Rates may soften or hold rather than increase significantly.
Conestoga (special open‐deck):
Given winter weather and tarping difficulties on open flatbeds, Conestoga-equipped carriers may secure better pricing or preference in snowy/cold regions—worth considering if you operate in the North/East/Midwest.
Booking & strategic tips:
Lock in core lanes now rather than chasing only spot; with capacity tightening (especially drivers) the flexibility premium is real.
For spot work: in reefer/dry van expect incremental rate increases — chase the lanes with load-to-truck ratio above average. For flatbed, pick lanes without weather/seasonal drag and emphasize flexibility (e.g., 48-hr pickup windows, shorter deadheads).
Watch fuel surcharges and carrier cost inflation—rate increases may not fully offset input cost rises.
Keep an eye on weather & state restrictions (especially for open‐deck/flatbed).
For backhaul strategy: when possible secure return loads rather than reposition empty, since rate margins are tighter.
Looking Ahead: Year-End Outlook
As we move into the last quarter of 2025, the outlook from C.H. Robinson indicates that while volume growth may be modest, cost pressures and capacity constraints (driver supply, regulatory) are pushing carriers to hold higher rate expectations. For 2026, they’ve increased forecasts slightly: dry van at +4% y/y and reefer +2-3% y/y. That suggests carriers and owner-operators should prepare now for higher cost bases going into next year. For flatbed, recovery may be more gradual, with improvement expected in mid-2026 once capacity tightens further and heavy/industrial freight picks up again.
Bottom Line for Your Blog Audience
If you’re running a 53-ft truck (reefer, dry van, flatbed or Conestoga) in the U.S. this November:
Dry van: Firm, but not booming. Efficiency + load quality matter.
Flatbed/Conestoga: More about picking the right lanes, weather-smart ops and maximizing trailer type advantage.
Across all modes: driver/asset availability is tighter, input costs rising, and the holiday marketplace brings variability. Plan ahead, maintain flexibility and optimize your dispatch/backhaul strategy.
