EPA Engine Rule Seen in December, Plus 2 More Trucking Stories

Rules, taxes and supply all shape what it costs to buy and run a truck, and all three moved this week. Today we look at the expected timing of a pending federal engine rule, three states that have paused their diesel taxes, and a truckmaker that sold far more trucks than it could easily build.

1. Cummins Expects EPA’s Final Engine Rule in December

EPA proposed changes to its 2027 heavy-duty engine rules on July 9, 2026. The proposal is not final and has no legal effect until EPA completes it. It would keep today’s emissions warranty periods instead of lengthening them, push the longer required engine life back to model year 2030, drop the power cuts and speed limits that follow a diesel exhaust fluid failure, and let manufacturers sell engines that miss the standard if they pay a per-engine nonconformance penalty. EPA estimates savings of up to $6,000 per new truck and up to $12 billion for the industry.

On its November 5 earnings call, Cummins CEO Jennifer Rumsey said the company’s understanding is that “we will likely see that in December.” That is a company expectation, not an EPA announcement. Rumsey said Cummins expects the penalties to be in the final rule, but it does not know whether their amounts will change, and the uncertainty is making some customers wait. Cummins cut its 2026 North American medium-duty truck forecast to 125,000-130,000 units from 130,000-140,000, pointing to weaker third-quarter demand as the rule’s uncertainty delayed purchases. It left its heavy-duty forecast at 240,000-250,000 units.

Why it matters: Anyone weighing a 2027 truck or engine is waiting on numbers that do not exist yet, including final penalty amounts, warranty terms and derate rules. Transport Topics notes that a December rule would arrive only days before the new year. Fleets planning replacements may want to ask dealers how price and delivery terms will change once the rule is final. We also covered the sharp drop in October Class 8 orders earlier this week.

2. Three States Pause Diesel Taxes, a Federal Holiday Is Only an Idea

Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio are not collecting their usual diesel taxes right now. On October 24, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp extended his suspension of the state motor fuel excise tax through November 30, citing a state of emergency; the diesel rate had been 37.3 cents a gallon. North Carolina’s revenue department says the state’s motor fuel excise tax is set at zero from October 10 to November 30 under a law signed October 9, but the inspection tax still applies and returns must still be filed. In Ohio, House Bill 519, signed October 1, cut the 47-cent diesel tax to a tiny fraction of a cent from October 4 through January 2, 2027, and requires retailers to pass the savings along.

At the federal level, Transport Topics reports that some officials and candidates have floated a suspension of the federal gas and diesel taxes. It would need an act of Congress, and the outlet says it is unclear whether lawmakers will take it up in the session that starts November 9 or in the next Congress. For now it is a proposal, not a policy.

Why it matters: The relief is real but short, since two of the three state pauses end on November 30. Carriers fueling in these states should check pump prices and end dates, and remember that reporting duties continue. Our recent look at diesel at $6.292 a gallon shows why even a partial tax break gets attention.

3. Daimler Truck North America Sells 51% More, but Supply Limits Output

Daimler Truck reported on November 6 that its North American truck unit sales rose 51% in the third quarter to 45,629 from 30,225 a year earlier. Incoming orders rose 12% to 29,357, and adjusted earnings before interest and taxes were 691 million euros, up from 257 million.

According to Transport Topics, shortages of third-party axles and engines held back assembly in the quarter, and CEO Karin Radström said little had changed going into the fourth quarter. The company expects a difficult catch-up that it hopes to finish by early 2027. Transport Topics also reports that orders were down 17% from the second quarter, and that Radström said clarity on the EPA penalties from story one would help.

Why it matters: Strong sales do not guarantee quick delivery. Buyers who have ordered trucks may face waits while suppliers catch up, and that catch-up overlaps the period when the engine rule is expected to be settled.

The Bottom Line

Truck buyers face a stack of open questions: a final EPA rule that is expected but not yet issued, tight supply at a major builder, and fuel costs that depend partly on where and when you buy. The state tax relief ends first, on November 30 in Georgia and North Carolina.

Neal’s Take

Taken together, these stories show that trucking costs depend on timing as much as on price: when a rule is finalized, when a tax pause ends and when a supplier catches up. I would watch whether EPA’s final rule really arrives in December and whether the penalty amounts differ from the proposal, since several buying decisions seem to hinge on it. I would treat the state tax pauses as temporary relief rather than a lasting change in fuel costs. Each item here is a company expectation, a proposal or a temporary measure, so none of it is settled.

— Neal Cvetkovski, Founder of LOAD TIDE. Personal opinion, not legal or financial advice.

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Sources: EPA proposed rule fact sheet (July 2026); Daimler Truck Q3 release (Nov. 6, 2026); Georgia Governor’s Office (Oct. 24, 2026); Ohio Department of Taxation (Oct. 2, 2026); North Carolina Department of Revenue (Oct. 12, 2026); Cummins Q3 call transcript (Nov. 5, 2026); Transport Topics on Cummins (Nov. 6, 2026); Transport Topics on Daimler Truck North America (Nov. 6, 2026); Transport Topics on a federal fuel tax holiday (Nov. 6, 2026).