Shipper Freight Costs Hit 5-Year High, Plus 2 More Trucking Stories

Three third-quarter reports landed within days of each other, and together they show a freight market where prices are rising faster than volume. Shippers are paying far more, truckload carriers are earning more per dollar of revenue, and XPO’s LTL business is growing quickly.

1. Shipper Freight Spending Jumps 32% While Volume Barely Moves

The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, published October 29, 2026, says shipper spending in the third quarter rose 32.1% from a year earlier and 5.2% from the prior quarter. That is the biggest annual jump since 2021. Shipment volume, by contrast, rose only 0.4% from the second quarter and 0.5% from a year earlier, the first annual increase since 2021. The index uses actual payment data for domestic truckload and less-than-truckload freight, so it measures what shippers paid, not what carriers posted as rates.

The Southwest stood out, with spending up 51.6% year over year; the bank ties that to enforcement actions that cut the number of drivers hauling domestic loads. It also points to tighter carrier capacity, stronger carrier pricing and expensive diesel, noting California diesel reached $8.25 a gallon in late September. ATA chief economist Bob Costello said outlays are “rising much faster than freight volumes.”

Why it matters: A payment index is a lagging, bank-reported measure, but the direction fits the pricing pressure other carriers have reported. Higher spending does not mean every carrier earns more, since fuel costs are rising too. Owner-operators and small fleets may find more room in contract renewals, and our guide to how fuel surcharges work shows how to check that fuel is actually covered.

2. Schneider More Than Doubles Adjusted Earnings and Raises Its Outlook

Schneider National reported third-quarter results on October 29, 2026, in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Revenue was $1.585 billion, up 9%, and $1.345 billion excluding fuel surcharge, up 3%. Income from operations rose 76% to $62.1 million, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.29 versus $0.12 a year earlier. The company raised its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to a range of $1.00 to $1.10 per share.

The gain came from asset-based segments. Truckload revenue excluding fuel was flat, yet its operating ratio improved to 93.0% from 96.8%, and intermodal improved to 92.1% from 94.0%. The logistics segment grew revenue 12% but earned nothing, with an operating ratio of 100.0%, compared with a $6.4 million profit last year. We covered another carrier planning price increases in our Knight-Swift report.

Why it matters: Flat truckload revenue with better margins points to pricing and cost control, not extra volume. The flat logistics result shows revenue growth does not always turn into profit.

3. XPO Posts Double-Digit Growth in LTL

XPO also reported on October 29, 2026. Total revenue was $2.373 billion, up 12.4%, and net income reached $181 million versus $82 million a year earlier. In North American LTL, revenue rose 17.4% to $1.473 billion, shipments per day grew 5.8% and tonnage per day 5.0%. Yield excluding fuel was up 3.6%, and the operating ratio improved to 80.7% from 83.4%. The release gives no formal financial guidance; management says it expects further upside as freight demand recovers.

Why it matters: LTL is growing in both volume and price while truckload volume stays flat, which may mean small-shipment freight is holding up better, though one carrier is not the whole market. Shippers and brokers moving partial loads should expect firm LTL pricing. Our October 29 roundup covered Old Dominion’s LTL pricing.

The Bottom Line

Prices are climbing while volume is nearly flat. The bank data shows shippers paying more, and two large carriers show improved margins, though in different segments. Schneider’s logistics segment is the exception, with growth but no profit.

Neal’s Take

These reports describe a market where capacity, not demand, is setting the price. Spending up 32% on volume up 0.5% is a large gap, and it may help explain why Schneider’s asset-based segments improved while its logistics segment earned nothing. I would watch whether volume starts to rise, since higher prices alone can eventually push shippers to cut spending. I would also watch the contract rates carriers announce for 2027, because they will show how much of today’s pricing sticks.

— Neal Cvetkovski, Founder of LOAD TIDE. Personal opinion, not legal or financial advice.

Stay with LOAD TIDE for daily updates on the freight and trucking market.

Sources: U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index (October 29, 2026); Schneider National Form 8-K, Q3 results (October 29, 2026); XPO Form 8-K, Q3 results (October 29, 2026).