Werner Warns on Q3 Profit, Plus 2 More Trucking Stories

Cost pressure is the common thread in today’s trucking headlines: one of the largest carriers says fuel, driver and insurance costs cut into its quarter, freight volumes are holding steady rather than growing, and a big jury award is a reminder of what crash litigation can cost. Here are the three stories worth your time.

1. Werner Warns Third-Quarter Profit Will Fall Well Short of Estimates

Werner Enterprises issued a preliminary third-quarter update on Monday, October 19, guiding adjusted earnings to 15 to 16 cents per share. Analysts had expected about 36 cents. Revenue is projected at $946 million to $951 million, close to the $953.6 million that was forecast.

The company pointed to roughly 18 cents of combined pressure from higher diesel prices, greater spending on driver recruitment and retention, and an adjustment to reserves for earlier insurance claims. Reporting indicates diesel rose about 10% in August and 15% in September. Werner is scheduled to release full results on October 27 after the market closes.

Why it matters: Even a large carrier with scale is feeling the squeeze when fuel jumps faster than rates can adjust. For smaller carriers and owner-operators, it is a signal to check that fuel surcharges, driver pay and insurance costs are all reflected in the rates you accept. Brokers and shippers may see carriers push harder on pricing.

2. ATA Tonnage Is Flat in September as Capacity Keeps Leaving

The American Trucking Associations’ For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index came in at 114 in September, up 0.8% from 113.1 in August and unchanged from a year earlier. For the first nine months of 2026, tonnage is up 0.9% versus the same period of 2025, helped by strong growth between February and April.

ATA chief economist Bob Costello said weakness in July and August pulled the third-quarter reading negative, and that soft tonnage is being paired with a market where capacity is still contracting. In his view, the shrinking supply of trucks is producing a better environment for motor carriers despite modest volumes.

Why it matters: Flat volumes with less capacity tend to support rates, which helps carriers, while shippers and brokers face tighter coverage. Because the index reflects contract freight, it is a useful reality check next to the spot market.

3. New Mexico Jury Awards $47 Million After a 2022 Tanker Truck Crash

A jury in New Mexico’s First Judicial District Court awarded $47 million to a pickup driver and his mother over a November 2022 head-on collision with a tanker truck near Carlsbad. The defendants named in the case are Pilot Thomas Logistics and Maxum Petroleum Operating Company; claims against the individual driver were dismissed earlier in October.

The plaintiffs’ attorneys allege the tanker was going too fast for conditions and that the driver did not react in time; these are allegations, and the report included no statement from the defendants. The docket shows the defendants filed motions challenging parts of the case on October 9, and as of October 19 no final judgment or notice of appeal had been entered, so the outcome may still change.

Why it matters: Large verdicts feed directly into insurance pricing and claims reserves, the same cost line Werner cited today. Carriers of every size benefit from documented safety practices, speed and weather policies, and adequate coverage.

The Bottom Line

Costs are rising faster than volumes. Fuel, labor and insurance are squeezing margins even as shrinking capacity keeps rates supported, so the details of each contract matter more than ever.

Neal’s Take

As the founder of LOAD TIDE, I read today’s stories as one picture: costs are climbing in fuel, drivers and insurance, while volumes are flat and capacity is slowly shrinking. That is a mixed message, since tighter capacity can support rates but higher costs can erase the gain. For carriers and dispatchers, I would look closely at fuel surcharge terms and total cost per mile before accepting loads. For brokers, I would expect carriers to price more carefully and plan for firmer coverage costs. Werner’s full results on October 27 are what I would watch next, and the New Mexico case is still an allegation-stage story where the courts will decide the outcome.

— Neal Cvetkovski, Founder of LOAD TIDE. Personal opinion, not legal or financial advice.

Stay with LOAD TIDE for daily updates on the freight and trucking market.

Sources: FreightWaves (Werner), Transport Topics (ATA tonnage), FreightWaves (New Mexico verdict).